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Yongkui Li, Keyu Lu, and Yujie Lu, A.M.ASCE. Project Schedule Forecasting for Skyscrapers. J. Manage. Eng. 2017, 33(3): 05016023
Abstract
An accurate schedule estimation is critical for megaprojects such as skyscrapers, which have features such as high economic
values and wide societal awareness. An inaccurate schedule may have serious consequences such as going seriously overbudget or developing a poor public image. However, the accuracy of using traditional methods to predict a skyscraper’s schedule is low because of the limitation of available information at the early stage, large uncertainties, complex influencing factors, and their coupling effects on the project schedule. To improve the accuracy of schedule estimation, this paper establishes a revised case-based reasoning (CBR) model to estimate the schedule for skyscrapers. The CBR model comprises three steps, including (1) identify seven key influencing factors, (2) retrieve and rank candidate cases according to their similarity to the target case, and (3) revise selected cases based on multiple regression analysis (MRA). The model was then tested by using 33 skyscrapers in China from the last decade. The result shows that the estimated error in this model (4.83%) is significantly lower than that in the traditional models (9–33%). This result justifies the application of extending CBR in the estimation of project schedule for megaprojects. It also provides a reliable and accurate scheduling tool to help owners better allocate and manage resources in the early stage of a megaproject.
